Popular Bitcoin model Stock-to-Flow (S2F) shows BTC has touched a trend line that has historically sent the crypto flying.
Bitcoin Touches S2F Deflection Trend Line
As pointed out by a crypto analyst on Twitter, BTC seems to have just touched a lower S2F deflection trend line.
The S2F or Stock-to-flow Bitcoin model helps in predicting the price of BTC. The method has proved to be remarkably accurate so far, besides a few points of deviation.
S2F model is based on the ratio between the stock (supply) and the flow (annual production). The model can be applied to any asset, not just BTC. A higher value of the indicator means the commodity is more scarce.
Here is how the latest S2F chart for Bitcoin looks like:
The BTC S2F chart seems have a negative deflection at the moment | Source: buybitcoinworldwide.com
As the graph shows, despite some deflections during certain periods, the model still seems to be close. Currently, the chart shows a negative deflection.
Now, there is another, related indicator of relevance here. The Stock-to-Flow deflection. This metric highlights whether an asset is undervalued or otherwise in terms of its S2F value.
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The BTC S2F deflection is calculated by taking the ratio between the current price and the S2F value. When the ratio is more than 1, it means BTC is overvalued, while if it’s less than 1, the crypto is said to be undervalued.
Below is a chart that shows the current trend in the BTC S2F deflection value:
The BTC S2F deflection ratio is much less than 1 right now | Source: glassnode
As the graph shows, there is a trend line that Bitcoin has touched in the past, soon after which the price has jumped up.
It seems like the crypto has once again made a touch on this line, and if past pattern follows, the price might move up.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is around $38k, up 2% in the last 7 days. Over the past month, the coin has accumulated 8% in gains.
Here is a chart showing the trend in the value of the cryptocurrency over the last 6 months:
BTC seems to be once again moving downwards | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
After a relieving period of sharp uptrend where Bitcoin reached $42k, the coin is once again falling down. As the S2F deflection trend line shows, it’s possible the price might shoot back up. However, that’s only given the pattern indeed holds.
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Also, something to note here is that even if the pattern holds, the price might not immediately go up. As the S2F deflection chart shows, BTC touched the trend line twice in 2017 before shooting back up.
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Author: Hououin Kyouma