Ethereum max drawdown from peak?

Got roughly 40 ETH at 1.2k – 1.5k. Debating whether I should sell now or not. I will need the money by year end.

Here are my rough calculations on what my predictions for the max drawdown can be based on Bitcoin’s last bull cycle (since it had a similar market cap as Ethereum at the time.).


Bitcoin Max Price 2017: $19,783 – December

Bitcoin Market Cap 2017: $330 Billion.

Bitcoin lowest price 2020 COVID dump: $3191

Bitcoin Market cap 2020 COVID dump: $53.2 billion.

Lowest Price/Highest Price last bull market cycle percentage: 16.1%


Ethereum Max price 2021: $4370

Ethereum Max Market Cap: $505 billion

Ethereum max market cap of 2021/Bitcoin Max marketcap of 2017 bull run = 1.53x


Prediction for lowest price IF we enter a bear market:

Max drawdown as a percentage = (Lowest Price/Highest Price last bull market cycle percentage) * (Ethereum max market cap of 2021/Bitcoin Max marketcap of 2017 bull run)

1.53 * 16.1% = 24.633%

24.633% * Ethereum Max price of 2021 ($4370) = $1076

Thoughts? Very rough sizing calculations, no regressions or anything fancy. I do not think ethereum will have a 93%+ max drawdown as we saw in the last market cycle given its larger relative marketcap size now.

submitted by /u/mbafatfire23
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